Turkey’s lira slides, dollar bonds tumble as presidential runoff looms

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Turkey’s lira held near a two-month low, its sovereign dollar bonds tumbled and the cost of insuring exposure to the country’s debt spiked as the presidential election appeared headed for a runoff with incumbent president Tayyip Erdogan in the lead. It was on track for its worst trading session since early November . On the Istanbul bourse, a 6.38% drop triggered a market-wide circuit breaker.

Parties of both Erdogan and opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu

were claiming the lead after Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary election, but sources in both camps admitted they may not clear the 50% threshold to win outright. “This is a major disappointment to investors hoping for a win for opposition candidate Kilicdaroglu and the reversion to orthodox economic policy he promised,” said Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer.

In the parliamentary vote, the People’s Alliance including Erdogan’s AKP was headed for a majority, meaning that even if Kilicdaroglu won a runoff, he would lead a split government. Dollar-denominated sovereign bonds issued by Turkey fell sharply by more than 5 cents, while the five-year Turkey credit default swap spread jumped 105 basis points (bps) to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the highest since November 2022. headtopics.com

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Early results in Turkey’s election show President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with leadEarly results from Turkey’s national election show President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a solid lead after nearly 20% of ballot boxes were counted, the Turkish state-run news agency says. Erdogan had 55% of the vote, compared to 39% garnered by main opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, according to Anadolu Agency. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, the winner will be determined in a May 28 run-off. Opinion surveys indicated the increasingly authoritarian Erdogan entered his bid for reelection on Sunday trailing a challenger for the first time. A spokesman for Kilicdaroglu’s center-left party cautioned the early returns were preliminary and said the “picture is extremely positive” for the opposition. Turkey’s state-run news agency says voter support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has dipped below the majority required to win reelection outright, making a May 28 runoff presidential election more likely.

Turkey’s Erdogan May Go To A Presidential Election RunoffPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan has governed Turkey as either prime minister or president for two decades.

Erdogan rival says has evidence of Russia’s online campaign ahead of Turkey electionThe main challenger of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said his party has concrete evidence of Russia’s responsibility for the release of ‘deep fake’ online content ahead of Sunday’s elections.

An Erdogan Loss in Turkey Would Stir Relief in the West and Anxiety in MoscowEuropean leaders won’t talk openly about their preferences in Turkey’s presidential election on Sunday. But it is an open secret that they and the Biden administration would be delighted if Mr. Erdogan were to lose. In Russia, not so much.

Earthquakes and the economy leave Turkey’s Erdogan facing his toughest election battle in yearsTurkish President Erdogan faces big threats to his premiership. A languishing economy, earthquake-ravaged regions and a backlash against millions of Syrian refugees are among the issues that could end with his ouster.

Turkey votes in pivotal elections that could end Erdogan’s 20-year ruleTurks will vote on Sunday in one of the most consequential elections in modern Turkey’s 100-year history, which could unseat President Tayyip Erdogan after 20 years in power and halt his government’s increasingly authoritarian path.

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